באיראן מאיימים כי תקיפת מתקני הגרעין תשיג תוצאה הפוכה ותביא להרחבת והאצת פרויקט הגרעין האיראני, כולל נסיגה מהאמנה למניעת הפצת נשק גרעיני שעליה איראן חתומה

יוני בן מנחם | 7 באוקטובר 2024 | חדשות | 3 דק׳

כיצד תגיב איראן אם ישראל תתקוף את מתקני הגרעין?

איראן חרגה פעמיים ממדיניות מלחמת ההתשה שהיא מובילה נגד ישראל, ותקפה אותה ישירות במאות טילים בליסטיים וכטב"מים. בכך היא מסתכנת במלחמה כוללת נגד ישראל והתדרדרות למלחמה אזורית, שעלולה להביא לכך שהיא תחטוף פגיעות קשות במתקני הגרעין שלה ובתעשיית הנפט, דבר שיגרום לה נזק כלכלי גדול.

איראן לא תכננה את המלחמה נגד ישראל במטרה להכריע אותה בפעם אחת, אלא כמלחמת התשה ארוכה שתביא את ישראל לקרוס לתוך עצמה. זאת לאחר שאיראן הקימה במשך שנים רבות טבעת חנק מסביב לישראל באמצעות השלוחות שלה במזרח התיכון, שאותן היא חימשה בטילים, רקטות וכטב"מים. האסטרטגיה האיראנית היא לא לאפשר לעשרות אלפי העקורים הישראלים לשוב לבתיהם בגבול הצפון, ולהקיף את ישראל בטבעות אש מכל החזיתות, עד שהיא תתמוטט מבחינה כלכלית וצבאית.

למרות ההסלמה הביטחונית בין ישראל לאיראן, בשני הצדדים מעריכים כי מדובר, בשלב הזה, בהחלפת מהלומות צבאיות, וכי שני הצדדים שולטים בגובה הלהבות ומנסים להימנע ממלחמה כוללת.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

הכור הגרעיני בבושהר, איראן, 21 באוגוסט 2010 | צילום: IIPA via Getty Images

הכור הגרעיני בבושהר, איראן, 21 באוגוסט 2010 | צילום: IIPA via Getty Images

הודעת דובר צה"ל בערבית

לאחר שיגור הרקטה הבוקר לעבר ישראל: צה״ל קורא לתושבי בית חאנון ואזורים נוספים בצפון הרצועה להתפנות

דורון פסקין

נשיא ארה''ב דונלד טראמפ, 28 במרץ 2025

"יום השחרור" שהכריז טראמפ, והמשמעויות האפשריות לכלכלה העולמית

דורון פסקין

הבניין שהופצץ הלילה בתקיפה הישראלית

ישראל תקפה הלילה בדאחיה בביירות

צוות מגזין אפוק

אלוף אלי שרביט, 19 בינואר 2024

ראש הממשלה הודיע לאלוף שרביט כי החליט לחזור בו ממינויו לתפקיד ראש השב"כ

צוות מגזין אפוק

כוחות צבא מצריים בסיני, בצד המצרי של מעבר רפיח, 9 בספטמבר 2024

ישראל דורשת את פירוק התשתיות הצבאיות של מצרים בסיני המפרות את הסכם השלום

יוני בן מנחם

כלי נשק שנמצאו אצל חברי החוליה לאחר מעצרם

סוכלה חוליית טרור שפעלה בהכוונת חמאס מטורקיה

קרן זריהן

הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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