כל עוד ארה”ב לא תיקח את הנושא ברצינות, המצב לא ישתנה, וארגוני הפרוקסי האיראניים ירוויחו מכך

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איראן ממשיכה לייצא נפט ללא הפרעה כמעט. זאת הסיבה | פרשנות

רקע

ב-2018 פרש ממשל טראמפ מהסכם הגרעין והטיל על איראן סנקציות נרחבות שכללו הגבלות על יצוא נפט, על סחר בין-לאומי, על מגזר הבנקאות, ועל תחומים רבים נוספים בכלכלה האיראנית. למרות זאת, הממשל החליט להעניק פטורים (waivers) למדינות מסוימות כדי שיוכלו לייבא כמויות מוגבלות של נפט איראני ללא סנקציות.

באפריל 2019 הפטורים בוטלו, מה שהוביל לירידה חדה ביצוא הנפט של איראן. מ-2.9 מיליון חביות ביום באפריל, צנח הייצוא ל-395,000 חביות בלבד בחודש מאי. בהמשך איראן התאוששה מעט והצליחה לייצא בממוצע כ-775,000 חביות נפט ביום עד סוף תקופת ממשל טראמפ, על פי "הקרן לשמירה על הדמוקרטיות" (FDD) – מכון מחקר בלתי מפלגתי בוושינגטון, המתמקד בביטחון לאומי ובמדיניות חוץ.

מסע הלחץ המקסימלי של טראמפ על איראן הוביל גם לירידה בייצוא של מגזרים שאינם נפט, כגון פטרוכימיה, גז טבעי ומתכות תעשייתיות. לפי הבנק העולמי, היצוא הכולל של איראן ירד ב-2019 וב-2020 ב-17.3% וב-12.8%, בהתאמה.

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צילום: Shutterstock

צילום: Shutterstock

נשיא ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ, המנהיג העליון של איראן, עלי ח'מינאי | צילומים: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images, khamenei.ir

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