איראן איננה מעוניינת כעת במלחמה אזורית. העדיפות הראשונה שלה היא לשפר את מצבה הכלכלי הרעוע ולהפשיר את כספיה המוקפאים במערב, אבל בחשאי היא עושה את כל ההכנות הדרושות לפריצת הדרך לייצור פצצת הגרעין

יוני בן מנחם | 24 במרץ 2024 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

פרשנות: הסבלנות האסטרטגית של איראן בדרך לפצצה גרעינית

המנהיג העליון של איראן, עלי ח'מינאי, נשא בשבוע שעבר נאום לרגל השנה החדשה (נורוז בפרסית), שבמרכזו המצב הכלכלי באיראן. דבריו היו ברורים, והוא אמר כי "המצב הכלכלי המתדרדר הוא נקודת החולשה העיקרית של איראן".

הדבר מסביר את הרצון של איראן להימנע ממלחמה אזורית במזרח התיכון, שתפגע בה עוד יותר מבחינה כלכלית. גורמים ביטחוניים בישראל אומרים כי איראן ממשיכה במדיניות ההליכה על הסף, והיא אינה מעוניינת בעימות ישיר עם ארה"ב.

היא מחזיקה בידיה את המפתח ליציבות במזרח התיכון, באמצעות השלוחות שבנתה במשך שנים בלבנון, סוריה, עיראק, תימן ורצועת עזה; אך כרגע היא מעוניינת בעימות מבוקר עם המערב, שיאפשר לה להביא להסרת הסנקציות שמקפיאות את הכספים שלה בבנקים במערב. אחרי הפשרתם, המשחק ישתנה. זוהי "הסבלנות האסטרטגית" שעליה מדבר המנהיג העליון עלי ח'מינאי. במקביל, פועלת איראן להשלים את בניית היכולת הצבאית שלה בתחום הגרעין.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

נשיא איראן אבראהים ראיסי, 1 במרץ 2024 | צילום: HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

נשיא איראן אבראהים ראיסי, 1 במרץ 2024 | צילום: HOSSEIN BERIS/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

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ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו ונשיא ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ בפגישתם בבית הלבן, 7 באפריל 2025

המשא ומתן בין איראן לארה"ב – ישראל שומרת על גישה פרגמטית ותנסה להפיק את המירב מהסיטואציה | פרשנות

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יוני בן מנחם

הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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