אף אחד לא יכול לדעת מה יקרה בפוליטיקה המקומית שלנו בעוד שנה. בלתי אפשרי לחזות מה…

איל לוינטר | 8 ביולי 2021 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

הדמוגרפיה רומזת שממשלות ישראל הבאות ינועו ימינה

אף אחד לא יכול לדעת מה יקרה בפוליטיקה המקומית שלנו בעוד שנה. בלתי אפשרי לחזות מה יקרה אפילו בעוד חודש. ולמרות זאת, מבט חטוף בדמוגרפיה של מדינת ישראל רומז כי ככל שיחלפו להן השנים קיימת סבירות גדולה יותר שמפלגות הימין יתחזקו והשפעתן על הפוליטיקה תגבר, בין אם רוצים בכך ובין אם לאו.

המתמטיקה של הדמוגרפיה פשוטה: על פי הלמ"ס, לאוכלוסייה החרדית יש שיעור פריון ממוצע של 7-6.5 ילדים לאישה, בעוד ליתר היהודים, שאינם אורתודוקסים, יש שיעור פריון של 3-2.5 ילדים לאישה. גם ההגירה לישראל היא ברובה של יהודים בעלי זיקה ציונית או דתית העוזבים את אזור אירו-אסיה או את ארה"ב (ב-2020 הגיעו 38% מרוסיה, 15% מאוקראינה, 11% מצרפת, 10.7% מארה"ב והיתר ממדינות אחרות).

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

צילום: Gali estrange/Shutterstock.com

צילום: Gali estrange/Shutterstock.com

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הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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