אחרי שפיתח נוסחאות שחזו בדיוק מרשים את עליית האימפריות הגדולות בעבר, החליט פרופ׳ פיטר טורצ׳ין להריץ אותן גם על העתיד. מה הן מגלות לנו, והאם יש פתרונות למשברים העולמיים שצפויים לבוא?

איל לוינטר | 24 במרץ 2017 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 16 דק׳

המודלים שחזו את עליית דאע״ש, מראים לנו איך להביס אותו

בשעה שהרגשנו מזועזעים וחסרי אונים מול המראות הקשים בטלוויזיה של פעילי דאע"ש לבושים בשחור, אוחזים בקלצ'ניקוב וחוגגים כיבוש של עיר נוספת שגובה את חייהם של אלפי חפים מפשע, היה אדם אחד שלא הופתע בכלל.

למעשה, לא רק שהוא לא הופתע, הוא גם צפה את זה כמה שנים קודם לכן. קוראים לו פיטר טורצ'ין, ולא, הוא לא אנליסט בכיר בסי-איי-אי או אדם עם כוחות חיזוי, אלא אנתרופולוג אבולוציוני, פרופסור באוניברסיטת קונטיקט שבארה"ב. כבר ב-2005, כשיצא לאור ספרו "מלחמה ושלום ומלחמה", הוא חזה שהפלישה המערבית לעיראק תייצר בסופו של דבר תגובת נגד, בצורה של ח'ליפות אסלאמית-רדיקלית חדשה. תחזית שנתן תשע שנים לפני שדאע"ש צץ על המכ"ם.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

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