ההיסטוריה מלמדת שלא נותר עוד זמן רב עד המשבר הכלכלי הבא

צוות אפוק | 1 באפריל 2018 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 2 דק׳

תזכורת: מה שעולה צריך גם לרדת

הכלכלה הגדולה והחשובה בעולם ממשיכה לצמוח בקצב משעמם ורגוע יחסית (כ-2.5% בשנה) מאז יוני 2009, ערב היציאה מהמשבר הכלכלי הקודם שהדיו הכו בכל העולם. "ביצועי כלכלת ארה"ב טובים, ובוודאי הטובים ביותר מאז שהסתיים המשבר הכלכלי", אמר רנדל קווארלס, מושל הבנק המרכזי של ארה"ב, בפברואר האחרון. לפי הבנק המרכזי, כלכלת ארה"ב איתנה וקיים סיכון מזערי למיתון.

אולם, כפי שהראנו כבר במגזין זה, 47 משברים כלכליים הכו את הכלכלה האמריקנית ב-200 השנים האחרונות, בדיוק מתי שלא ציפו להם. וחשוב מכך – הם באו כמו גלים. לפני כמאה שנה הם הכו בכל שלוש או ארבע שנים בממוצע; אולם בעשורים האחרונים תדירותם השתנתה, והם מופיעים בכל שמונה שנים בממוצע (או כל עשור) – פרק הזמן שחלף, בערך, מאז יוני 2009, כשהכלכלה האמריקנית יצאה ממיתון אחרי המשבר הקשה של 2008. במילים אחרות, המשבר הבא אורב מעבר לפינה.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 12: Journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin (L) and Founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio participate in a discussion at the New York Times DealBook Conference at New York Times Building on November 12, 2013 in New York City. (Photo by Larry Busacca/Getty Images for The New York Times)

המיליארדר ריי דליו (מימין). מאמין שלמשברים כלכליים יש מחזוריות | תמונה: Larry Busacca/Getty Images for The New York Times

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איל לוינטר

הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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