גורמי ביטחון בכירים טוענים כי סינוואר אינו מעוניין כעת בעסקת חטופים, וממתין לפרוץ מלחמה אזורית שתסיט את הלחץ הצבאי מעל חמאס

יוני בן מנחם | 9 בספטמבר 2024 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

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רקע

נכון לסוף אוגוסט, המגעים לעסקת חטופים ולהפסקת אש ברצועת עזה נקלעו למבוי סתום. ישראל מסרבת לסגת מ"ציר פילדלפי" וממסדרון נצרים במסגרת השלב הראשון של העסקה, בעוד שחמאס עומד על דרישתו לנסיגה מוחלטת של צה"ל מהרצועה כתנאי למימוש העסקה.

בחירתו של יחיא סינוואר לראש הלשכה המדינית, לאחר חיסולו של איסמאעיל הנייה בטהראן, חיזקה את מעמדו בתנועת חמאס והפכה אותו לבעל הסמכות העליונה. לפי גורמים ביטחוניים בכירים, סינוואר מאמין שהוא יכול להמשיך בלחימת גרילה נגד כוחות צה"ל ברצועה לאורך זמן. רק כמחצית מכוחה של הזרוע הצבאית של חמאס הושמד עד כה על ידי צה"ל, ובשטח עדיין נותרו כ-15 אלף מחבלים חמושים ועוד מאות קילומטרים של מנהרות שצה"ל טרם חשף.

חמאס מנסה לייצר רקטות ופצצות מרגמה באמצעות מחרטות שהוכנסו למנהרות, מגייס צעירים עזתיים לשורותיו ומשקיע מאמצים להקים מחדש את המסגרות הצבאיות שפורקו על ידי צה"ל. את הפעילות הזו מוביל מוחמד סינוואר, אחיו של יחיא סינוואר, אשר ירש את מוחמד דף בתפקיד ראש הזרוע הצבאית של חמאס.

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