מתקפת הטילים והכטב”מים האיראנית נגד ישראל יצרה שתי אדוות שעשויות להוביל בסופו של דבר להאצת תוכנית הגרעין, בהנחה שמדיניות הממשל האמריקני תישאר ללא שינוי

איל לוינטר | 8 במאי 2024 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

פרשנות: מדוע גוברים הסיכויים שטהרן תאיץ בהמשך את תוכנית הגרעין שלה

רקע

מאז המתקפה האיראנית על ישראל בלילה שבין ה-13 ל-14 באפריל, בכירים במשטר האיראני, במיוחד אלה המשתייכים למשמרות המהפכה, הגבירו את אזהרותיהם מפני פריצה גרעינית של איראן, כלומר מפני האצת תוכנית הגרעין עד כדי ייצור פצצה גרעינית.

אחד מהם היה אחמד הַגְטָלַאב, מפקד בכיר במשמרות המהפכה, שאיים ב-18 באפריל כי איראן תשקול מחדש את מחויבותה שלא לפתח נשק אטומי, אם ישראל תתקוף את מתקני הגרעין. דבריו נשענים על פתווה שהוציא לכאורה המנהיג העליון, עלי חמינאי, ב-2003, האוסרת על פיתוח נשק גרעיני בטענה שזה מנוגד לחוק האסלאמי (הדיונים על אמינות ועקביות הפתווה הזו נמשכים בקרב חוקרים ובקרב הקהילה הבין-לאומית). אמירות אחרות של בכירים איראנים רמזו גם כן שאם חמינאי ייתן הוראה, איראן תפתח פצצה מהר יחסית.

מאז טבח ה-7 באוקטובר, תוכנית הגרעין של איראן ירדה בסדר החשיבות אצל ארה"ב וישראל. ארה"ב מיקדה את תשומת ליבה במתקפות החות'ים על ספינות באזור הים האדום, וישראל מיקדה את תשומת ליבה בפירוק החמאס.

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צילום: shutterstock

צילום: shutterstock

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