פרשנות: מספר תרחישים אפשריים לעתיד לבוא – יציאת ארה"ב מהמזרח התיכון, מנופי הלחץ הפלסטיניים לקראת מו"מ עתידי, וקריסת הסכם הסחר בין ארה"ב לסין

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המהלך הבא במשחק השחמט העולמי – יולי 2020

לאט ובשקט ארה"ב ממשיכה לצאת מהמזרח התיכון. האם ישראל תתפוס את מקומה?

1כבר יותר מעשור שארה"ב מנסה לצאת מהמזרח התיכון, מרבית הזמן בלי הצלחה. החשש העיקרי שמנע זאת ממנה עד כה הייתה הדאגה שבעקבות יציאתה ייווצרו אזורי ואקום שעליהם ישתלטו כוחות טרור עוינים. אם לומר את האמת, ארה"ב לא באמת הייתה מוכנה לוותר לגמרי על השפעתה בשטח. לכן הגו בפנטגון אסטרטגיה חדשה-ישנה – שימוש ב"שחקנים" מקומיים עצמאיים שיבצעו את העבודה הצבאית בשטח למען האינטרס האמריקני. במקום שארה"ב תנחית כוחות צבא גדולים בסוריה שילחמו בדאע"ש, הכורדים יעשו זאת עבורה. כך תוכל ארה"ב לצמצם כוחות. הבסיסים האמריקנים שייוותרו בשטח יעסקו באיסוף מודיעין, בפעולות מיוחדות ובאימון השחקנים המקומיים.

אבל האסטרטגיה הזו החלה לגבות מהאמריקנים מחיר גבוה שהולך ומאמיר. ברגע שארה"ב הפחיתה את כוחותיה על הקרקע, הכוחות המעטים יחסית שנותרו הפכו לפגיעים למתקפות. השיא הגיע בסוף דצמבר האחרון כשכוחות פרוקסי איראניים ירו טילים על בסיס אמריקני בעיראק, מהלך שהוביל לתגובה אמריקנית חריפה – חיסול קאסם סולימאני, מפקד כוח קודס האיראני.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

[Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images]

[Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images]

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