באיראן מאיימים כי תקיפת מתקני הגרעין תשיג תוצאה הפוכה ותביא להרחבת והאצת פרויקט הגרעין האיראני, כולל נסיגה מהאמנה למניעת הפצת נשק גרעיני שעליה איראן חתומה

יוני בן מנחם | 7 באוקטובר 2024 | חדשות | 3 דק׳

כיצד תגיב איראן אם ישראל תתקוף את מתקני הגרעין?

איראן חרגה פעמיים ממדיניות מלחמת ההתשה שהיא מובילה נגד ישראל, ותקפה אותה ישירות במאות טילים בליסטיים וכטב"מים. בכך היא מסתכנת במלחמה כוללת נגד ישראל והתדרדרות למלחמה אזורית, שעלולה להביא לכך שהיא תחטוף פגיעות קשות במתקני הגרעין שלה ובתעשיית הנפט, דבר שיגרום לה נזק כלכלי גדול.

איראן לא תכננה את המלחמה נגד ישראל במטרה להכריע אותה בפעם אחת, אלא כמלחמת התשה ארוכה שתביא את ישראל לקרוס לתוך עצמה. זאת לאחר שאיראן הקימה במשך שנים רבות טבעת חנק מסביב לישראל באמצעות השלוחות שלה במזרח התיכון, שאותן היא חימשה בטילים, רקטות וכטב"מים. האסטרטגיה האיראנית היא לא לאפשר לעשרות אלפי העקורים הישראלים לשוב לבתיהם בגבול הצפון, ולהקיף את ישראל בטבעות אש מכל החזיתות, עד שהיא תתמוטט מבחינה כלכלית וצבאית.

למרות ההסלמה הביטחונית בין ישראל לאיראן, בשני הצדדים מעריכים כי מדובר, בשלב הזה, בהחלפת מהלומות צבאיות, וכי שני הצדדים שולטים בגובה הלהבות ומנסים להימנע ממלחמה כוללת.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

הכור הגרעיני בבושהר, איראן, 21 באוגוסט 2010 | צילום: IIPA via Getty Images

הכור הגרעיני בבושהר, איראן, 21 באוגוסט 2010 | צילום: IIPA via Getty Images

נשיא סין, שי ג'ינפינג

סין העלתה את המכס על סחורות אמריקניות ל-125%

דורון פסקין

מכלית נפט פורקת בנמל צ'ינגדאו שבמחוז שאנדונג במזרח סין

סין הגדילה את ייבוא הנפט מאיראן ב-80% – פעולה שמערערת את מדיניות "הלחץ המקסימלי" האמריקנית

צוות מגזין אפוק

צה"ל מגביר את הלחץ הצבאי; כ-30% משטח הרצועה נכבש

יוני בן מנחם

נשיא ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ

הבית הלבן מבהיר: שיעור המכס על סין הוא 145% ולא 125%

צוות מגזין אפוק

משטרת ישראל

נחשפה תשתית להעברת כספי טרור מטורקיה לאיו"ש באמצעות אזרחים ישראלים

קרן זריהן

מחבלים בכניסה לרעים, 7 באוקטובר 2023

תחקיר הקרב בקיבוץ רעים – כיתת הכוננות לחמה לבדה במשך שעות ומנעה מסע רצח מסיבי

אורן שלום

הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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