מסמך שפרסמה ה"מועצה האטלנטית" מתריע מפני האפשרות שסין תבחר להטיל מצור על טייוואן, ומפרט כיצד יש לפעול בניסיון למנוע מצור כזה

קרן זריהן | 14 בינואר 2024 | חדשות | 4 דק׳

נייר עמדה: מצור על טייוואן הוא האפשרות הכדאית ביותר לסין, ויש להיערך לכך

ב-12 בדצמבר פרסמה ה"מועצה האטלנטית", צוות חשיבה אמריקני בתחום יחסים בינלאומיים, מדיניות ואסטרטגיה, מסמך אסטרטגי המתריע מפני האפשרות שסין תטיל מצור ימי על טייוואן, ומציע כיצד להיערך לכך.

מחבר המסמך, מרק ג'סטראב, עמית בכיר במועצה האטלנטית, מסביר כי "בעוד שפלישה [סינית לטייוואן] מהווה את האיום הגדול ביותר על ריבונותה של טייוואן, מצור ימי עשוי להיות האפשרות המעשית ביותר עבור סין".

לדבריו, פלישה סינית לטייוואן היא תרחיש פחות סביר מכיוון שהיא עומדת בניגוד למטרות האסטרטגיות של סין – ראשית פלישה תגרום להערכתו לאלימות ישירה נגד תושבי טייוואן, האוכלוסייה שהמפלגה הקומוניסטית הסינית (מק"ס) מבקשת לאחד או לשלוט בה. שנית, פלישה עשויה לפגוע בפוטנציאל הצמיחה הכלכלית של סין, שכן יוטלו על סין סנקציות כלכליות בין-לאומיות ועשויה להרס גם התשתית והכלכלה של טייוואן, עליה סין בונה.

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