ישראל הצליחה לצאת מהמשבר בעקבות מתקפת ה-7 באוקטובר ולפגוע קשות בציר השיעי בראשות איראן, אך היא עדיין ניצבת בפני איומים קשים ומורכבים

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מבצע "מבול אל-אקצא" של חמאס הפתיע את ישראל ב-7 באוקטובר 2023 וגרם לה נזק אסטרטגי חסר תקדים מאז הקמתה. גם לאחר שנה וחצי של מלחמה בשבע חזיתות, ישראל מתקשה לסיים את המלחמה ברצועת עזה ולהסיר מעליה את האיום הגרעיני האיראני, למרות שהיא התאוששה והצליחה לפגוע קשות בציר השיעי בראשות איראן.

כעת, ישראל מקיימת מגעים עקיפים מול חמאס על המשך הפסקת האש ושחרור חטופים, בעוד חמאס דורש את סיום המלחמה, נסיגה מרצועת עזה ושיקומה, והאמריקנים לוחצים על השלמת כל שלבי העסקה.

גורמים מדיניים בכירים בירושלים טוענים כי ישראל השיגה ניצחון אסטרטגי במזרח התיכון ושינתה לחלוטין את מאזן הכוחות לטובתה. בין ההישגים שהם מציינים: החלשת ציר ההתנגדות השיעי; פגיעה משמעותית בארגון הטרור חיזבאללה בלבנון, שממנה הוא יתקשה להתאושש בעתיד הקרוב; הרחבת השפעת ישראל בדרום סוריה ויצירת אזור חיץ שיספק לה ביטחון מוגבר בגזרה הזו; וקידום מדיניות חדשה בסוריה שמטרתה לפרז את דרום המדינה מנשק, תוך התעלמות מהסכם הפרדת הכוחות שנחתם בין סוריה לישראל בשנת 1974.

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