במערכת הביטחון מעריכים כי פגיעה בבכירי המשטר ובאתרים אסטרטגיים עשויה להתחיל תהליך שיביא בסופו של דבר להחלשת המשטר, אך לצורך הפלת השלטון דרוש מאמץ בין-לאומי נרחב שיכלול מספר זירות פעולה

יוני בן מנחם | 10 באוקטובר 2024 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

תקיפה משמעותית באיראן עשויה להחליש את המשטר – אך האם היא תספיק להפלתו? | פרשנות

ההתקפה הישראלית על איראן צפויה להתרחש בקרוב, ועל פי גורמים מדיניים בכירים בירושלים היא תהיה "קשה ומשמעותית". היעדים שישראל מתכננת לתקוף באיראן אינם ידועים לציבור. יש ספקולציות שונות באמצעי התקשורת, שאחת מהן היא תקיפה ישראלית על מוקדי השלטון באיראן, דבר שעשוי לסייע במיטוט השלטון הדיקטטורי של המנהיג העליון עלי ח'מינאי.

אפשרות נוספת היא תקיפת אתרי הגרעין או מתקני תעשיית הנפט של איראן, כדי לגרום נזק כבד לכלכלה שלה. אבל להערכת כמה גורמים ביטחוניים בישראל, מהלך כזה עלול דווקא לעורר תסיסה ברחוב האיראני נגד ישראל והזדהות עם המשטר האיראני, בשל הפגיעה הכלכלית הצפויה בחי היומיום של האזרחים.

השאלה הנשאלת היא, האם בכלל יש בכוחה של ישראל להביא להפלת משטר האייתולות באיראן? האם היא יכולה להצליח במשימה כזו לבדה, והאם יש לה את כל המשאבים הדרושים לכך?

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

המנהיג העליון של איראן עלי ח'מינאי עם מפקדי צבא, 26 בנובמבר 2007

המנהיג העליון של איראן עלי ח'מינאי עם מפקדי צבא, 26 בנובמבר 2007 | צילום: STR/AFP via Getty Images

נשיא ארה״ב דונלד טראמפ והמנהיג העליון של איראן עלי ח'מינאי

הקרב על הגרעין – איראן וארה"ב יפתחו בשיחות בעומאן | פרשנות

יוני בן מנחם

ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו ונשיא ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ בפגישתם בבית הלבן, 7 באפריל 2025

המשא ומתן בין איראן לארה"ב – ישראל שומרת על גישה פרגמטית ותנסה להפיק את המירב מהסיטואציה | פרשנות

יוני בן מנחם

מזכ''ל חיזבאללה נעים קאסם (מימין), 5 באפריל 2025

מחלוקות פנימיות, חולשה צבאית ולחץ להתפרק מנשק – לאן פניו של חיזבאללה? | פרשנות

יוני בן מנחם

בירושלים מעריכים: צפוי משא ומתן מאתגר; ספק רב אם איראן תסכים לפירוק פרויקט הגרעין | פרשנות

יוני בן מנחם

נשיא ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ והמנהיג העליון של איראן עלי ח'מינאי

האם הדיפלומטיה מספיקה כדי לעצור את פרויקט הגרעין האיראני? | פרשנות

יוני בן מנחם

מזכיר המדינה פיט הגסת' לצד נשיא ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ במהלך ישיבת קבינט בבית הלבן, 26 בפברואר 2025

לאן יובילו התקיפות האמריקניות בתימן? | פרשנות

יוני בן מנחם

הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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