למרות שחיזבאללה נפגע, האתגר האסטרטגי של השבת המפונים לבתיהם בגבול הצפון נותר בעינו. פרשנים ערביים במזרח התיכון מעריכים שהפיצוצים נועדו לגרור את חיזבאללה להגיב בחוזקה, דבר שיצדיק מבצע צבאי גדול, אך מוגבל, לכיבוש דרום לבנון והקמת רצועת ביטחון

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ההתקפה המפתיעה והמוצלחת של ישראל על אלפי פעילים של חיזבאללה בלבנון, בשני גלים עד עכשיו, היא הישג מודיעיני ומבצעי חשוב שמחזק את כושר ההרתעה של ישראל, אבל הוא אינו משפר את מצבה האסטרטגי. מדובר בשיפור כושר ההרתעה, ולא בשיפור כושר ההכרעה.

ההתקפה תירשם בהיסטוריה של המזרח התיכון כמבצע מוצלח וחסר תקדים נגד הטרור של חיזבאללה, אך היא איננה מספיקה כדי להחזיר כ-60 אלף מפונים ישראלים לגור בבתיהם על גבול הצפון בבטחה. היא גם לא תחלץ את ישראל, שמתמודדת בשבע חזיתות מול הציר השיעי בראשות איראן, ממלחמת ההתשה שאליה היא נקלעה.

החגיגה התקשורתית בישראל על ההישג החשוב מוקדמת מדי. חיזבאללה מתכוון להגיב בעוצמה נגד ישראל, למרות שהיא מעולם לא לקחה אחריות על ההתקפה.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

אחת מזירות הפיצוץ בלבנון

אחת מזירות הפיצוץ בלבנון | צילום: ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images

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מזכיר המדינה פיט הגסת' לצד נשיא ארה"ב דונלד טראמפ במהלך ישיבת קבינט בבית הלבן, 26 בפברואר 2025

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הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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