מלחמה כוללת, מלחמה מוגבלת או הסדר מדיני – ישראל תפעל על פי סדרי עדיפויות

איל לוינטר | 11 ביולי 2024 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

פרשנות: סדרי העדיפויות של ישראל מול חיזבאללה

רקע

בחודש יוני הזהירו בכירים אמריקנים את ישראל מפני פתיחת מבצע צבאי נרחב נגד החיזבאללה בלבנון, כיוון שהדבר עלול לגרור את איראן ובעלי בריתה למלחמה. האזהרות האמריקניות הגיעו על רקע הסלמה בגבול הצפון ועלייה ברטוריקה הלוחמנית בין מנהיג חיזבאללה, חסן נסראללה, לבין מנהיגי ישראל שאיימו במלחמה.

ישראל מעוניינת ליצור אזור חיץ בדרום לבנון שימנע מחיזבאללה לירות טילים נגד טנקים על יישובי הצפון, וכך ירחיק את כוח רדואן מהגבול.

מה צפוי בהמשך

מנקודת המבט של איראן ושלוחותיה, מתקפה ישראלית מוגבלת בדרום לבנון, בדומה לזו שבוצעה במלחמת לבנון השנייה בה לחמו כוחות קרקע בעיקר באזורי הדרום, אינה מיועדת להביס את חיזבאללה, אלא לייצר הגנה פיזית מפני תקיפות עתידיות (אזור חייץ במרחק כמה קילומטרים). ולכן אם היא תצא לפועל ייתכן שהשלוחות האיראניות באזור יפתחו במתקפות סמליות על נכסים ישראליים כדי להביע הזדהות עם החיזבאללה וחמאס, אך המצב אינו אמור להסלים לסכסוך אזורי נרחב הכולל את איראן וארה"ב.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

להמשך קריאה הירשמו או התחברו

צילום: Abir Sultan/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

צילום: Abir Sultan/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

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