על פי גורמי הביטחון קיימת אפשרות שחיזבאללה ואיראן ינסו לשבש את פעילות ישראל ברפיח | פרשנות

יוני בן מנחם | 7 במאי 2024 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

גורמי ביטחון מעריכים: הרחבת המבצע ברפיח עלולה להביא להסלמה עם חיזבאללה ואיראן

צה"ל פתח במבצע צבאי מוגבל לפינוי תושבים מהשכונות המזרחיות של העיר רפיח ולהשתלטות על מעבר רפיח. ישראל עדכנה מראש את ארה"ב ומצרים על המבצע, שנועד בשלב הזה להפעיל לחץ על חמאס להתקדם בעסקת החטופים ולא להכשילה. כרגע מדובר על העברת כמאה אלף תושבים השוהים באזור הזה ממזרח לרפיח.

חמאס גורר רגליים כבר תקופה ארוכה וסוחט את ישראל. הוא מנסה להוציא ממנה התחייבות להפסקת המלחמה ונסיגת כל כוחות צה"ל מהרצועה, דבר שסותר את החלטות הקבינט הישראלי. גורמים מדיניים בכירים בירושלים אומרים כי אם חמאס יכשיל לגמרי את העסקה, צה"ל יכבוש את כל אזור רפיח ויתפוס את "ציר פילדלפי" כבר כעת, על פי החלטת קבינט המלחמה.

במקביל לפעולה באזור רפיח, צה"ל פועל עם עין פקוחה לעבר גבול הצפון. גורמי הביטחון מעריכים כי אם תתרחב הפעולה הצבאית ברפיח, קיימת אפשרות שארגון חיזבאללה יגביר את ההתקפות על ישראל וינסה לשבש את הפעולה. קיימת גם אפשרות שאיראן תתערב בעצמה, או תפעיל שלוחות נוספות שלה במזרח התיכון, כמו החות'ים בתימן, לתקוף את ישראל.

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