ה-11 בספטמבר הוא הדד-ליין ליציאת הכוחות האמריקניים מאפגניסטן, לאחר 20 שנה בפנים. תאריך סימבולי בלבד, שכן…

איל לוינטר | 8 ביולי 2021 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 4 דק׳

ביידן יוצא מאפגניסטן, שערוכה כעת למלחמת אזרחים

ה-11 בספטמבר הוא הדד-ליין ליציאת הכוחות האמריקניים מאפגניסטן, לאחר 20 שנה בפנים. תאריך סימבולי בלבד, שכן עד תחילת יולי אמורים היו לעזוב את אפגניסטן מרבית הכוחות האמריקניים וכוחות נאט"ו. מי בכל זאת נותר? מעט מהכוחות המיוחדים שימשיכו לשתף פעולה עם המודיעין האפגני; מעט שכירי חרב שיסייעו לצבא אפגניסטן; כוחות שיטור של ממשלת אפגניסטן וכוחות צבא; וכמובן הטליבן.

קשה לדעת מה יקרה בהמשך אבל אפשר לנחש ניחוש סביר הודות לרמזים גסים המגיעים מהשטח. מאז ה-1 במאי, התאריך בו החלו הכוחות הזרים לצאת, ועד לתחילת יולי השתלט הטליבן באגרסיביות, תוך מתקפות חמושות, על 157 מחוזות מתוך 407 במדינה (ראו מפה). לכיבוש המחוזות שתי מטרות: חיזוק ההשפעה של הטליבן, והשגת מנופי לחץ או קלפי מיקוח במשא ומתן העתידי שינהל ארגון הטרור מול ממשלת אפגניסטן, אם בכלל ינהל משא ומתן כזה.

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צילום: Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images

צילום: Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images

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