כשבועיים וחצי מאז החל צה"ל את הפעילות הקרקעית ברצועת עזה, ערפל הקרב מתפזר והתמונה מתבהרת. נכון…

ד"ר עומר דוסטרי | 7 בנובמבר 2023 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

פרשנות: התמרון הקרקעי של צה"ל בעזה – מטרות, מאפיינים ותמונת מצב עדכנית

כשבועיים וחצי מאז החל צה"ל את הפעילות הקרקעית ברצועת עזה, ערפל הקרב מתפזר והתמונה מתבהרת. נכון לכתיבת שורות אלה, לא רק שהצליח צה"ל לכתר את העיר עזה, אלא הוא פועל בתוכה. צה״ל מתמקד כרגע בצפון רצועת עזה, וסביר להניח שלא יחל בפעילות קרקעית משמעותית (למעט פשיטות) בחלקים אחרים.

כדי להבין את התמונה האסטרטגית הכוללת, יש להבהיר קודם לכן את האסטרטגיה הצבאית של צה״ל בעזה. בצה״ל מתכננים לבתר את עזה לחלקים (צפון, מרכז, מרכז-דרום, ודרום), להגיע למרחבים פתוחים בכל חלק, לטהר אותם ולהתקדם לשטחים בנויים (בעיקר הערים המרכזיות) – שם תתרחש עיקר הלחימה המאומצת והעיקשת.

השלב הראשון מכוון להכרעת צפון עזה (לרבות העיר עזה) מכיוונים שונים. השלב השני יכלול כיתור והקפת העיר דיר אל-בלח במרכז-צפון רצועת עזה, תוך פריסת כוחות הן מצפון (ממערב לאורך החוף, וממזרח בשטחים פתוחים סמוכים ליד ישראל) והן מגבול מרכז ישראל. השלב השלישי יתרכז באזור ח'אן יונס במרכז-דרום, והשלב הרביעי יתרכז באזור רפיח בדרום ליד הגבול עם מצרים.

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