חיזבאללה ניצב בפני משבר היסטורי. הוא אינו יכול לגבור על ישראל, ומצד שני אינו יכול להודות בכישלונו. גורמים ביטחוניים אומרים כי מעמדו של הארגון מתחיל להיחלש ברחוב הלבנוני, אך הוא עדיין נהנה מתמיכת העדה השיעית

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המלחמה בלבנון נמשכת במלוא עוצמתה, ולבנון עומדת להיכנס בקרוב לעונת החורף. בינתיים אין שום סימן להפסקת אש קרובה.

שליחותו של המתווך האמריקני עמוס הוכשטיין ללבנון נכשלה בשלב הזה. חיזבאללה וממשלת לבנון אינם מוכנים להכניס שום שינוי להחלטה 1701 של האו"ם העוסקת בדרום לבנון. ארגון הטרור מציב תנאים לפיהם לא יאפשר תהליך של בחירה של נשיא חדש ללבנון לפני שתוכרז הפסקת אש.

חיזבאללה, שחטף מכות צבאיות קשות מישראל בשבועות האחרונים, התאושש בסיוע איראני, ותוקף את ישראל באמצעות רקטות וכטב"מים בעומק הישראלי. אולם על פי פרשנים לבנוניים, הוא איננו יכול להרשות לעצמו, נוכח מצבו הקשה, להפסיק את המשא ומתן העקיף עם ישראל להפסקת אש והסדר מדיני בדרום לבנון.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

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הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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