ההערכה של מערכת הביטחון הישראלית והצעדים הצפויים באיראן

יוני בן מנחם | 20 במאי 2024 | גיאו-פוליטיקה | 3 דק׳

פרשנות: איראן ביום שאחרי ראיסי

ישראל הרשמית שומרת על שתיקה בכל הקשור למותו של נשיא איראן איבראהים ראיסי, שנהרג בתאונת מסוק לאחר ביקור באזרבייג'ן באזור שמרוחק 600 ק"מ מעיר הבירה טהראן. ביחד עם הנשיא ראיסי, המכונה "התליין מטהראן", נהרגו בתאונה חברי פמלייתו, שבה היה גם שר החוץ האיראני חוסיין אמיר עבד אללהיאן.

גורמים מדיניים בכירים בירושלים מבהירים כי לישראל אין שום קשר להתרסקות המסוק, שנבעה מתנאי מזג אוויר קשים. עם זאת, ייתכן שגורמים שונים בתוך איראן ינסו להפיץ את תיאוריית הקונספירציה כי ידה של ישראל הייתה מעורבת בהתרסקות המסוק.

ההערכה של מערכת הביטחון הישראלית היא כי מותם של נשיא איראן ושר החוץ שלה לא ישנה את מדיניות איראן במזרח התיכון. היא צפויה להמשיך את מדיניות ההתפשטות שלה ואת מאמציה לייצר נשק גרעיני. האירוע גם לא ישפיע על המלחמה של צה"ל נגד חמאס ברצועת עזה. המנהיג העליון של איראן, עלי ח'מינאי, הוא זה שקובע את מדיניות החוץ והביטחון של איראן ואת היחס לישראל.

רוצה לקרוא עוד?

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הירשמו לניוזלטר שלנו וקבלו תוכן חדש למייל מדי חודש

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