ניתוח שערך המרכז למחקרים אסטרטגיים ובינלאומיים (CSIS) מצא כי פלישה סינית לטייוואן תביא אמנם לתבוסה של…

צוות אפוק | 12 בינואר 2023 | חדשות | 1 דק׳

משחקי מלחמה: פלישה סינית לטייוואן תוביל לתבוסה סינית, אבל גם תגבה מחיר כבד מיתר השחקנים

ניתוח שערך המרכז למחקרים אסטרטגיים ובינלאומיים (CSIS) מצא כי פלישה סינית לטייוואן תביא אמנם לתבוסה של סין, אך תגבה מחיר גבוה מכל הצדדים המעורבים, כולל ארה"ב ויפן. הניתוח נערך בעזרת מומחים צבאיים שערכו "משחקי מלחמה" כדי לחזות את תוצאתה האפשרית של פלישה כזו.

על פי הניתוח, שכלל 24 סימולציות של משחקי מלחמה, סין צפויה לחוות את מירב האבדות: פלישה לטייוואן תגרום לה לאובדן של כ-10,000 חיילים, 155 מטוסי קרב, 138 ספינות גדולות ולנפילה בשבי של כ-30,000 חיילים סינים. נוסף על כך, כישלון הפלישה יערער את יציבות המפלגה הקומוניסטית הסינית השלטת בסין.

אלא שהפלישה תסב גם נזק לאויבי סין. טייוואן צפויה לאבד כ-1,100 חיילים, כמו גם את כל המשחתות וספינות המלחמה שלה; יפן, הפועלת כבסיס עבור כוחות הצבא האמריקני, עתידה לאבד 112 מטוסים ו-26 ספינות מלחמה; ארה"ב עלולה לאבד 3,200 חיילים, 270 מטוסים ו-17 ספינות מלחמה.

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