פרשנות: מספר תרחישים אפשריים לעתיד לבוא – הברקזיט שוב יתעכב, כוחו של ארדואן עלול להיפגע, וה"מנוף" שאיפשר לרוסיה לתמרן את מזרח אירופה ייחלש

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1 ביוני 2016 החליטו הבריטים – באמצעות משאל עם – שברצונם להתנתק מהאיחוד האירופי, מבלי שלאיש היה מושג מה משמעות ההחלטה. כיצד "מתנתקים" מהאיחוד האירופי? במה זה כרוך? דיוויד קמרון, ראש ממשלת בריטניה דאז, התפטר מיד מתפקידו. מועמדים נוספים מטעם המפלגה הקונסרבטיבית שאמורים היו להחליף אותו חששו לקחת את המושכות לידיהם והתקפלו אף הם. לבסוף נותרה תרזה מיי. היא מונתה לעמוד בראש המפלגה ובראש הממשלה.

בשלוש השנים וחצי שחלפו מאז, התחולל כאוס במערכת הפוליטית בבריטניה. בתחילה דובר על "ברקזיט קשה" – התנתקות כוללת מהאיחוד האירופי שתעצור את תנועת המהגרים ממדינות אירופה לבריטניה. בהמשך דובר על "ברקזיט רך" שיותיר את בריטניה ב"שוק המשותף" של האיחוד האירופי, ולא יאפשר לה לבלום את ההגירה. וזאת כיוון שחֲבֵרוּת בשוק המשותף מאפשרת למדינות האיחוד האירופי להעביר בינן לבין עצמן סחורות, שירותים, הון – אבל גם אנשים – באופן חופשי, בהתאם לכללים אחידים ושווים שנקבעו לכל המדינות.

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תמונה: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

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